Blackjack, Card Counting, and Why the 5's are the Most Iimportant Cards in the Deck

Counting cards in blackjack is a way to increase your chances of winning. If you're good at it, you can actually take the odds and put them in your favor. This works because card counters raise their bets when a deck rich in cards that are advantageous to the player comes around. As a general rule of thumb, a deck rich in 10's is better for the player, because the dealer will bust more often, and the player will hit a blackjack more often.

Most card counters keep track of the ratio of high cards, or 10's, by counting them as a +1 or a -1, and then gives the opposite +1 or -1 to the low cards in the deck. Some systems use a balanced count where the number of low cards is the same as the number of 10's.

But the most interesting card to me, mathematically, is the 5. There were card counting systems back in the day that involved doing nothing more than counting the number of fives that had left the deck, and when the 5's were gone, the player had a big advantage and would raise his bets.

A good basic strategy player is getting a 99.5% payback percentage from the casino. Every 5 that's come out of the deck adds 0.67% to the player's expected return. (In a single deck game, anyway.) That means that, all other things being equal, having one 5 gone from the deck gives a player a small advantage over the house.

Having two or three 5's gone from the deck will actually give the player a pretty significant edge over the casino, and this is when a card counter will usually raise his bet. The problem with counting 5's and nothing else is that a deck low in 5's happens pretty rarely, so gaining a big advantage and making a profit from that situation only comes on rare occasions.

Any card between 2 and 8 that comes out of the deck increases the player's expectation. And all 9's. 10's, and aces increase the casino's expectation. But 8's and 9's have very small effects on the outcome. (An 8 only adds 0.01% to the player's expectation, so it's generally not even counted. A 9 only has 0.15% affect in the other direction, so it's not counted either.)

Understanding the effects the low and high cards have on your expected return on a bet is the first step in learning to count cards and play blackjack as a winner.

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Blackjack Mistakes

All blackjack players make mistakes, even experienced card-counters. But there are some innocent mistakes that rookies seem to make on a regular basis that it's better not to make, especially if you're playing for the first time at an actual land-based casino.

The blackjack mistake I'm most guilty of is sitting down and trying to play at a higher limit table than I have a bankroll for. It probably happens consistently all night long that players sit down and try to make $5 or $20 bets at a $100 minimum table. The dealers and other players get understandably frustrated when this happens. The solution to preventing this mistake? Just have a look at the little sign on each table stating the table limits, and make sure it's the right stakes table before you sit down.

Another common mistake is throwing chips haphazardly into the betting circle. Your chips should always be in a single stack, so the dealer doesn't have to get confused about whether or not you've doubled down. Related to this mistake is handling your bet after you've placed it. Dealers will snap at you over touching your bet, because they need to make sure you're not adding chips to your bet when you have a good hand, or removing bets when you've got a bad hand.

Don't touch the cards in a face up blackjack game. Cheaters will often try to mark the cards with a sharp fingernail, and the rule for not touching the cards prevents this. Be careful when handling the cards in a face down game too, because if you're careless with the cards, you can expect correction from the dealer rather quickly.

Playing live blackjack is a lot of fun, but it's a lot more fun when you avoid these common and sometimes embarassing rookie blackjack mistakes.

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